The world's food production is under threat, and it's not just due to climate change, pests, or other natural factors.

One often overlooked but crucial factor impacting global food security is the disruption in the fertilizer supply chain. As the New York Times reports, this disruption is driving up fertilizer prices, making them inaccessible to many farmers, and in turn, raising concerns about food shortages and malnutrition in various parts of the world.

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Fertilizers are essential for modern agriculture.

Fertilizer As A Key Ingredient in Food Production

Fertilizers play an essential role in modern agriculture. As YARA reports, they provide vital nutrients like nitrogen, phosphoric acid, and potassium to crops, helping them grow faster and yield more. Among these, potassium chloride, an important compound in many fertilizers, is in high demand. However, the supply chain for fertilizers, specifically potassium chloride, has recently taken a significant hit due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors.

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Fertilizers provide crucial nutrients like nitrogen, phosphoric acid, and potassium.

Geopolitical Tensions and Sanctions

The disruption to the global fertilizer supply chain can be largely attributed to geopolitical tensions. Sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have led to a decline in their exports of potassium chloride, reports the International Food Policy Research Institute.

According to data from the European Union (EU), Russia and Belarus are responsible for 40% of the global potassium chloride exports, which means that a substantial portion of the world's fertilizer supply relies heavily on these nations.

Sanctions and trade restrictions have resulted in a significant increase in the prices of raw materials required for fertilizer production. As of 2022, prices for these raw materials have risen by 60% to 70% compared to the previous year, reports Nikkei Asia.

This spike in prices has had a ripple effect on global fertilizer prices, making them less affordable for farmers worldwide.

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Potassium chloride, a key fertilizer compound, is in high demand.

Impacts on Food Production in Asia and Africa

The consequences of this fertilizer disruption are acutely felt in Asia and Africa. In many low-income and developing nations, farmers struggle to afford fertilizers even under normal circumstances. Now, with the soaring prices, access to these essential resources has become even more challenging.

The World Bank has projected a potential decrease in global chemical fertilizer use for the coming year. The effects are expected to be particularly severe in Asia and Africa, with global corn, rice, and wheat production estimated to decrease significantly.

This impending reduction in crop yield could exacerbate food shortages worldwide.

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Russia and Belarus account for 40% of global potassium chloride exports.

The Impact on Eastern Africa

Increased fertilizer prices will have a major impact on cereal production in Eastern Africa. According to the World Food Programme, this region relies heavily on imported fertilizers, with Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania experiencing a significant price hike. Due to increased transport costs, the prices are even higher in these countries, making it challenging for smallholder farmers to access fertilizers.

Reduced domestic cereal availability is likely to lead to more food imports to bridge the gap. This will put additional pressure on local currencies and result in higher food inflation, impacting food security in the short term, the World Bank reports. The worst affected will be directly involved farmers and urban and rural households relying on markets for their food supply.

In Eastern Africa alone, it's estimated that the number of food-insecure people may rise by nearly 6-7 million by the end of the year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, primarily due to the reduced crop production caused by increased fertilizer prices and reduced use.

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Sanctions and trade restrictions are impacting fertilizer supplies.

Local Responses and Global Concerns

In response to the looming fertilizer crisis, various countries and international organizations have taken steps to mitigate its effects. The United States Department of Agriculture, for instance, announced $500 million in subsidies to support fertilizer makers, aiming to create a domestic supply chain for inorganic fertilizers. Japan has shifted its fertilizer sourcing away from Russia and China, reports the Lowy Institute, acknowledging the importance of diversifying their raw material supply chains.

However, these measures are only part of the solution. While they can help prevent an immediate food crisis, they do not address the underlying issue of high fertilizer costs. The high prices persist, leading to concerns that malnutrition and food insecurity may worsen in developing regions.

As the global fertilizer supply chain disruption continues to affect food production and prices, it becomes increasingly clear that addressing the issue at its root is crucial. Long-term policy solutions, coupled with investment in domestic fertilizer production, are essential to achieving food security and reducing malnutrition in regions highly dependent on imported fertilizers.

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