Once numbering over a million, Caspian seals now teeter on the edge of extinction. Found nowhere else but the vast, landlocked Caspian Sea, these small, ice-breeding mammals are the only marine mammals in the region. Their dramatic population collapse—more than 90% in the past century—is the result of overlapping crises driven by climate change, pollution, habitat degradation, and human exploitation.

As their numbers dwindle and their breeding grounds vanish, the fight to preserve them has become one of the most urgent conservation battles in the Eurasian region.

Sea levels in the Caspian are rapidly declining.

Climate Change Is Eroding Their Breeding Grounds

Caspian seals rely on winter ice sheets in the northern basin of the Caspian Sea to give birth and rear pups. These sheets are already becoming unreliable. Rising temperatures have led to earlier thaws and thinner ice, forcing mothers and pups into riskier territory and exposing the vulnerable white-coated newborns to fatal cold if their coats become waterlogged. The breeding zone, once a stable platform, is now shrinking, with projections estimating up to 81% habitat loss with a 5-meter sea level decline, and complete disappearance with further loss by century’s end, as reported by researchers at the University of Leeds.

This is not a slow trickle. Evaporation, accelerated by climate warming and exacerbated by reduced inflows from the Volga and Ural rivers, is draining the Caspian Sea. At current rates, water levels could plummet by 18 meters by 2100. The shallow northern basin, vital to the seals’ reproductive cycle, could disappear entirely, according to a report from the Caspian Policy Center.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Aboutaleb Nadri, License: CC BY 4.0

Caspian seals are found nowhere else on Earth.

Industrial Activity and Pollution Compound the Crisis

The challenges do not end with melting ice. The Caspian Sea is one of the most polluted large water bodies in the world. It receives runoff tainted with petroleum products, heavy metals, pesticides, and industrial waste. This toxic brew has a cumulative effect, now dubbed “cumulative toxicosis,” impacting the seals' immune systems, reproductive health, and longevity, CaspianSeal.org reports.

Seal blubber has revealed alarmingly high levels of DDT and other organochlorines, leading to infertility in up to 80% of adult females in some years.

On top of this, invasive species such as the comb jelly *Mnemiopsis leidyi* have disrupted the food web. Feeding on zooplankton, this alien species has decimated fish stocks—particularly the small kilka fish that are a dietary mainstay for Caspian seals. Combined with overfishing, this has left seals struggling to find sufficient food.

Thousands of seals drown in illegal fishing nets every year.

Bycatch and Oil Operations Displace and Kill Seals

Though commercial hunting of seals has largely ceased, illegal poaching and accidental bycatch in sturgeon poaching nets continue to cause staggering mortality. Thousands of seals drown annually after becoming entangled in these nets. Offshore oil installations introduce further threats, with icebreaking vessels cutting through seal nurseries during the critical breeding season, often separating pups from mothers and disrupting mating behaviors, according to researchers at the University of Leeds.

Satellite tracking has revealed that many critical foraging and migration zones overlap with oil and shipping routes. The seals are being squeezed into smaller and more dangerous spaces with each passing year.

Photo: YouTube / Eugenio_films

Industrial noise drives seals away from breeding grounds.

Fragmented Protections and International Inaction

Despite being listed as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature since 2008, and included in the national Red Books of all five Caspian-bordering nations, actual conservation enforcement remains piecemeal. Kazakhstan and Russia have signed joint conservation agreements, and three Important Marine Mammal Areas (IMMAs) have been designated across the sea. But these zones lack legal teeth and do not restrict industrial activity or fishing, IUCN reports.

Some hope lies in proposed protected areas, like Kazakhstan’s planned reserve in the northern Caspian. If enacted, these zones could curb vessel traffic and preserve key breeding and haul-out sites. According to the Moscow Times, other Caspian states have lagged behind in creating or enforcing meaningful protections, and the region’s fragmented legal framework continues to frustrate coordinated conservation efforts.

The Path Forward Requires Human Commitment

The outlook for Caspian seals is grim—but not hopeless. Conservationists point to other marine mammals, such as the Northern Elephant seal, that have recovered from near-extinction. For the Caspian seal, success hinges on three pillars: strong, enforceable protections for critical habitats; regional cooperation among all five Caspian countries; and public engagement to support sustainable practices and fight illegal fishing.

Conservation groups are working with local communities, offering training and incentives to fishermen to report and release bycaught seals rather than kill them. Scientists continue mapping migration routes and monitoring population trends to inform adaptive conservation strategies.

Ultimately, as researchers at the University of Leeds have emphasized, the future of the Caspian seal—and the entire Caspian ecosystem—depends on human choices made today. There is still time to act. But the window is closing fast.

Click below to take action for Caspian seals.